All Work
Internal Tool · A-06 · v0.3
Cinder Club
Acquire for the third delivery, not the first discount. Cohort Calendarv0.3 / LAB
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THE PROBLEM WE ADDRESSWhich acquisition cohorts survive the third delivery?
01Modelled business scenarioCompany and figures are fictional
02Working mechanismCohort Calendar
03Modelled outcomeFor commercial orientation
MODELLED BUSINESS SCENARIO
Buy customers who stay for the third delivery.
BUDGET$55,000 media / monthPERIOD16-week model
Modelled by joining ad source, flavour preference and subscription history.
BUSINESS MODEL
What is sold and where the problem starts.
Acquire subscribers who remain through the third delivery, not one-box promotion hunters.
Front-end ROAS looked healthy, but introductory discounts produced high cancellation after the first shipment.
Reach 100% contribution payback in 90 days and keep subscriber CPA below $55.
THE EXPERIMENT STORY
The discount sold the first box. It did not sell the second.
This narrative uses a modelled scenario. The company, budget and outcomes are fictional; the diagnostic and operating logic show how a real engagement would unfold.- 01
01 / THE BRIEF The first symptom was not inside the ad account.
The acquisition chart rose every time the introductory offer became louder. Thirty days later, cancellation caught up. Customers had bought a bargain, not a coffee ritual, and the brand had no reason to be remembered between deliveries.
Growing subscription commerce brand was selling monthly specialty coffee box across Germany and Austria. The model was recurring subscription. On the surface, the brief sounded direct: Acquire subscribers who remain through the third delivery, not one-box promotion hunters.
- MODEL
- Recurring subscription
- 02
02 / WEEK ONE Promo bias
Front-end ROAS looked healthy, but introductory discounts produced high cancellation after the first shipment. The trap was that isolated metrics still looked acceptable: Paid-social CTR was 1.18%, landing cpc was $1.38, and subscriber cpa was $64.
Discount-led ads won on first-order CPA but lost money after cancellations. That changed the diagnosis. The issue was not one toggle inside an ad account; it was what the system counted as success and which signal reached the team. The work had to connect media to the outcome that actually created business value.
- Subscriber CPA
- $64 → <$55
- 03
03 / THE TURN Sell a changing morning ritual and use taste choices to personalise the second delivery before it is at risk.
The first decision was “Cohort economics.” Join acquisition source, first box, flavour profile, skip and cancellation history. It was followed by “Sell the ritual”: Lead with discovery and convenience instead of a heavy first-box discount.
Capped promo exposure and optimized creative by 90-day cohort margin. Once the measurement logic was shared, the team could see what to stop, what needed a different message, and where the real constraint sat in the page, lead handling or product availability rather than traffic.
- FIRST DECISION
- Cohort economics
- 04
04 / THE BUILD A new café on your kitchen shelf every month.
A new café on your kitchen shelf every month. The production plan became 8 ritual videos, 20 taste cards, a flavour quiz, onboarding email and cancellation-save flows. The tests were not about abstract taste; they covered discovery, freshness, convenience, brewer type, origin story and subscriber control.
The journey was assembled as one chain: Ritual video → Taste quiz → Subscription checkout → Third delivery. Meta, Google Shopping, YouTube, Email no longer lived in separate reports, while GA4, Shopify, Recharge, Klaviyo, BigQuery connected spend, behaviour and the final outcome. Placed a short flavour and brewing quiz before plan selection.
- SYSTEM
- 4 channels · 5 tools
- 05
05 / THE DECISION Subscription growth begins after checkout, when the second delivery has to feel more relevant than the first.
In the model, paid-social ctr moved from 1.18% to 1.72%, subscriber cpa from $64 to $52, and 90-day payback reached 108%. These are not promises; they make the decision thresholds explicit before real data enters the system.
Weeks 12–16: Scale against 90-day margin. The main conclusion reached beyond a single campaign. Subscription acquisition worked only after retention became a media metric. That is the logic a real engagement would retain, using the client's actual evidence, constraints and accountable decision makers.
- 90-day payback
- 108%
KPI / CTR / CPC / CPA
Not one vanity percentage. The full metric chain.
Every figure in this section is modelled to demonstrate the scenario economics.01Paid-social CTR
- BEFORE
- 1.18%
- TARGET
- 1.55%
- MODEL
- 1.72%
Subscription appeal
02Landing CPC
- BEFORE
- $1.38
- TARGET
- <$1.10
- MODEL
- $0.96
Cost of product education
03Subscriber CPA
- BEFORE
- $64
- TARGET
- <$55
- MODEL
- $52
Acquisition cost
04Third delivery
- BEFORE
- 43%
- TARGET
- >52%
- MODEL
- 57%
Subscription quality
0590-day payback
- BEFORE
- 71%
- TARGET
- >100%
- MODEL
- 108%
Contribution recovery
STRATEGY
Four decisions that change the economics.
- 01Cohort economics
Join acquisition source, first box, flavour profile, skip and cancellation history.
- 02Sell the ritual
Lead with discovery and convenience instead of a heavy first-box discount.
- 03Personalized start
Route users by roast, equipment and consumption pace before checkout.
- 04Retention feedback
Judge creative on third-delivery contribution, not first-order revenue.
CREATIVE IDEA
A new café on your kitchen shelf every month.
8 ritual videos, 20 taste cards, a flavour quiz, onboarding email and cancellation-save flows.
Discovery, freshness, convenience, brewer type, origin story and subscriber control.
PATH TO OUTCOME
- 01Ritual video
- 02Taste quiz
- 03Subscription checkout
- 04Third delivery
WHAT DID NOT GO TO PLAN
Problems are part of the work. So are the fixes.
Promo bias
PROBLEM
Discount-led ads won on first-order CPA but lost money after cancellations.
FIX
Capped promo exposure and optimized creative by 90-day cohort margin.
Wrong first box
PROBLEM
Taste mismatch increased refunds and churn.
FIX
Placed a short flavour and brewing quiz before plan selection.
OPERATING CADENCE
What happens while the project runs.
- 01Weeks 1–3
Build cohort view and cancellation reasons.
- 02Weeks 4–6
Launch taste quiz and ritual creative.
- 03Weeks 7–11
Optimize first-box and retention journey.
- 04Weeks 12–16
Scale against 90-day margin.
MAIN TAKEAWAYSubscription acquisition worked only after retention became a media metric.
This demonstrates how we think — it does not fabricate a case study.
Discuss a Similar Solution This is not a client result; the numbers are sample data. For your project, we adapt the solution, tools and measurement to the task and budget.